Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally.

Table of Contents


Expected daily cases by country


Figure 1: Map of the expected change in daily cases

Summary of latest reproduction number and case count estimates


Figure 2: Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (bar = 95% credible interval). Countries/Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required fror elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six countries/regions with the most cases currently


Figure 3: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in the countries/regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation in the six countries/regions with the most cases currently


Figure 4: Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in the countries/regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Reproduction numbers over time in the all countries/regions modelled


Figure 5: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in all countries/regions modelled. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation in allcountries/regions modelled

Figure 6: Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in all countries/regions modelled. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Latest estimates summary table

Region Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling time (days)
Australia 95 – 425 Increasing 1.5 – 3.5 0.31 – Cases decreasing
Austria 534 – 1105 Increasing 1.3 – 2.2 0.92 – Cases decreasing
Bahrain 2 – 30 Unsure 0.6 – 1.2 0.31 – Cases decreasing
Belgium 308 – 791 Increasing 1.2 – 2.1 1 – Cases decreasing
Brazil 71 – 437 Increasing 1.6 – 3.8 0.39 – Cases decreasing
Canada 96 – 268 Increasing 1.6 – 2.8 2.5 – 610
China 34 – 208 Increasing 1.2 – 2.5 2.4 – 30
China Excluding Hubei 3 – 41 Likely increasing 0.9 – 2 2.7 – Cases decreasing
Czechia 93 – 363 Increasing 1.1 – 3.1 0.14 – Cases decreasing
Denmark 57 – 235 Unsure 0.8 – 1.3 1.6 – Cases decreasing
Estonia 12 – 44 Unsure 0.6 – 1.2 0.24 – Cases decreasing
Finland 31 – 159 Likely increasing 0.8 – 2 0.3 – Cases decreasing
France 533 – 2411 Increasing 1 – 2.1 3.1 – 120
Germany 4979 – 8989 Increasing 2.1 – 4.6 2 – 8.1
Greece 32 – 163 Unsure 0.9 – 1.7 2.2 – Cases decreasing
Hong Kong 4 – 7 Unsure 0.6 – 1.9 0.065 – Cases decreasing
Hubei 1 – 7 Decreasing 0.1 – 0.3 5.2 – Cases decreasing
Iceland 24 – 144 Likely increasing 1 – 2.5 2.1 – Cases decreasing
Iran 695 – 1901 Unsure 0.8 – 1.2 6.2 – Cases decreasing
Ireland 42 – 253 Increasing 1.3 – 3.4 2.2 – Cases decreasing
Israel 85 – 361 Increasing 1.6 – 2.6 1.7 – 18
Italy 1219 – 8670 Likely increasing 1 – 1.6 2.7 – Cases decreasing
Japan 9 – 76 Unsure 0.8 – 1.3 3.5 – Cases decreasing
Malaysia 100 – 217 Increasing 1.6 – 2.3 1.1 – Cases decreasing
Netherlands 399 – 1086 Increasing 1.3 – 2.4 2 – Cases decreasing
Norway 40 – 251 Unsure 0.7 – 1.4 2.2 – Cases decreasing
Pakistan 98 – 566 Increasing 1.8 – 4.5 0.22 – Cases decreasing
Philippines 3 – 21 Unsure 0.6 – 1.6 0.48 – Cases decreasing
Poland 46 – 271 Increasing 1.2 – 2.8 0.46 – Cases decreasing
Portugal 131 – 442 Increasing 1.2 – 2.7 0.25 – Cases decreasing
Qatar 3 – 25 Decreasing 0.4 – 0.8 0.065 – Cases decreasing
Romania 22 – 103 Increasing 1.1 – 1.9 2 – Cases decreasing
Singapore 37 – 60 Increasing 1.4 – 2.3 3.1 – 16
Slovenia 5 – 65 Unsure 0.7 – 1.3 0.15 – Cases decreasing
South Korea 70 – 228 Increasing 1.1 – 1.7 3.4 – Cases decreasing
Spain 1468 – 4514 Increasing 1.1 – 1.9 2.3 – Cases decreasing
Sweden 63 – 301 Likely increasing 0.8 – 1.6 2 – Cases decreasing
Switzerland 540 – 1852 Increasing 1.5 – 2.3 2.8 – 37
United Kingdom 216 – 2000 Increasing 1 – 2.8 3.1 – Cases decreasing
United States 3352 – 7297 Increasing 1.8 – 5.1 2 – Cases decreasing


Table 1: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each country/region included in the analysis. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95\% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.